Predicting the Unpredictable

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Here at HockeyCSSI we have a great deal of hockey data available to us. Sifting through the data to arrive at interesting and more importantly statistically significant information can be challenging at best. To this end J.J. and I have been working to develop an all encompassing system for player evaluation. This system’s stated goal is to evaluate a player based on the following concepts

  • Individual production
  • Team production while he is on the ice
  • Opponent production while he is on the ice
  • Relative talent level of every teammate adjusted for percent of time spent with them
  • Relative talent of every opponent adjusted for percent of time spent with them
  • All metrics both positive and negative are adjusted based on the game situation. Events that occur when the score is “close” are more significant than when a team is up by three goals.
To this end literally every shot, missed shot, giveaway, takeaway, hit, goal, penalty is analyzed to include what zone it occurred, who was on the ice, the current score and whether a team is 5v3, 5v4, 4v4, etc.
By adjusting for all these concepts over a long enough span of time we hope to be able to quantify an individual’s talent level.  We are not quite ready to publish the results yet (mostly, because they are probably still wrong) but we plan on starting a daily post predicting the winners of each and every NHL game based these numbers.
Predictions for Nov 7, 2011:
New York Islanders @ Boston Bruins
Assuming starting goalies DiPietro and Rask
Even assuming that Tim Thomas takes the night off Boston gets the pick tonight.  What an exciting and controversial first pick.  This is probably a sign to bet the farm on DiPietro and the Isles.
Predicted winner: Boston.

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks
Assuming starting goalies Quick and Niemi
This pick is little more interesting as San Jose is at home and some Googling reveals they are the “favorite”. Bottom line is that the computer system really likes Quick and thinks he will be the difference in the game.
Predicted winner: Los Angeles Kings.